Intensifying War of Words Involving Ethiopia and Eritrea Triggers Fears of Military Confrontation

Increasing worries are present regarding the chance of warfare involving Horn of Africa neighbours, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as hostile discourse has intensified in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for passage to the sea coast through Eritrea has triggered a fierce verbal exchange.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in last year that his country's access to the sea was an existential matter, comments that Eritrea dismissed.

Ties between the two countries have frequently been strained. After a decades-long struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a long sea border, formally separated from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, rendering it landlocked.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict started in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Current Remarks from Ethiopian Government

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief the army commander have openly claimed control of Eritrean maritime facility of Assab – some 60 km from the border - and suggested the wish to take it by force.

On 1 September, Abiy said the country's "blunder" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "addressed soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Statements

In the face of continuous threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to short statements on social media from Information Minister the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's demand for sea access describing it as "hazardous" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a strategy of reclaiming lost territory.

Government spokespeople cautioned on recently that moves to justify "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Ground

Currently, there are no reports of major military movements in the boundary zones between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in the country, government media has shown graduation ceremonies of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.

The leader of personnel division of the armed forces, General Hachalu, stated recently in an conversation that the military was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a warning to our adversaries".

Historical Origins of the Dispute

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, the territory was governed by colonial powers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the British military before becoming a integrated region of Ethiopia.

But in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this system and Eritrea became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A extended civil war ensued, finishing with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then confirmed by voters in a vote in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their common border, causing war in 1998.

Even though this finished in a peace deal in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries remained at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders signed a statement that the hostilities was concluded – a move that earned the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The two governments were then allies in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 civil war in Tigray.

However ties have subsequently deteriorated anew.